Highlights
- •Age standardised incidence rates separated of cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma from four European registries were analysed.
- •An annual increase between +2.4% and +5.7% was observed over three decades.
- •Highest increases occurred in ages ≥60, especially in men ≥80.
- •Age-standardised mortality rates are rising in Germany and Scotland.
- •In extrapolations until 2044, an increase up to 5-fold in ages ≥60 is expected.
Abstract
Aim of the study
Cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC) incidences are increasing but scarcely available
separated. We analysed incidence rates of cSCC over three decades with an extrapolation
to 2040.
Methods
Cancer registries from the Netherlands, Scotland and two federal states of Germany
(Saarland/Schleswig-Holstein) were sourced for separate cSCC incidence data. Incidence
and mortality trends between 1989/90 and 2020 were assessed using Joinpoint regression
models. Modified age-period-cohort models were applied to predict incidence rates
up to 2044. Rates were age-standardised using the new European standard population
(2013).
Results
Age-standardised incidence rates (ASIR, per 100,000 persons per year) increased in
all populations. The annual percent increase ranged between 2.4% and 5.7%. The highest
increase occurred in the age groups ≥60 years, especially in men aged ≥80 years, with
a three to 5-fold increase. Extrapolations up to 2044 showed an unrestrained increase
in incidence rates in all countries investigated. Age-standardised mortality rates
(ASMR) showed slight increases between 1.4 and 3.2% per year in Saarland and Schleswig-Holstein
for both sexes and for men in Scotland. For the Netherlands, ASMRs remained stable
for women but declined for men.
Conclusion
There was a continuous increase of cSCC incidence over three decades with no tendency
for levelling-off, especially in the older populations as males ≥80 years. Extrapolations
point to a further increasing number of cSCC up to 2044, especially among ≥60 years.
This will have a significant impact on the current and future burden on dermatologic
health care which will be faced with major challenges.
Keywords
Abbreviations:
NMSC (non-melanoma skin cancer), BCC (basal cell carcinoma), cSCC (cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma), ASIR (age standardised incidence rate), ASMR (age standardised mortality rate), AAPC (average annual percentage change), EAPC (estimated annual percentage change), ICD (International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems)To read this article in full you will need to make a payment
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Article info
Publication history
Published online: January 27, 2023
Accepted:
January 17,
2023
Received in revised form:
January 16,
2023
Received:
December 2,
2022
Identification
Copyright
© 2023 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
