Highlights
- •Delay of >2 months for cancer treatment is estimated in 6–8% of patients.
- •Additional cancer deaths at 5 years will be observed for 2020 patients.
- •Impact is mainly found on sarcoma, gynaecological, liver, head and neck, breast cancer and acute leukaemia.
- •Patients should be informed not to postpone cancer diagnosis and treatment.
Abstract
Background
Patients and methods
Results
Conclusions
Keywords
1. Introduction
- Gligorov J.
- Bachelot T.
- Pierga J.Y.
- et al.
Radiothérapie de la sphère ORL en période de pandémie COVID-19, Propositions d'adaptations pratiques validées par le bureau du GORTEC au 28/3/2020. https://gortec.net/index.php/fr/actualites/476-covid19-radiotherapie-orl-recommandations-gortec.
Prise en charge des cancers digestifs en fonction de la situation épidémique COVID-19. https://www.snfge.org/content/21-prise-en-charge-des-cancers-digestifs-en-fonction-de-la-situation-epidemique-covid-19.
- Kempf E.
- Lamé G.
- Layese R.
- et al.
2. Patients and methods
2.1 Study design and data sources

2.2 Model development

Cancer type | All patients a (%)In this table, only patients under active treatment using hospital resources (surgery blocks, beds in the postsurgery unit, chemotherapy sessions, radiotherapy sessions, beds for haematopoietic stem cell transplant) considered in the study are taken into account. Percentages are calculated with respect to the total number of patients. | New patients by cancer type (%) | Metastatic patients by cancer type (%) |
---|---|---|---|
Acute leukaemia | 118 (2.0) | 23 (19.5) | NA |
Bladder | 64 (1.1) | 5 (7.8) | 36 (56.3) |
Breast | 1906 (32.0) | 817 (42.9) | 190 (10.0) |
Cervix | 256 (4.3) | 24 (9.4) | 22 (8.6) |
Colon | 185 (3.1) | 43 (23.2) | 91 (49.2) |
Gastroesophageal | 58 (1.0) | 16 (27.6) | 27 (46.6) |
Germinal seminoma | 61 (1.0) | 2 (3.3) | 33 (54.1) |
Head and neck | 452 (7.6) | 183 (40.5) | 44 (9.7) |
Kidney | 46 (0.8) | 8 (17.4) | 46 (100) |
Liver | 30 (0.5) | 8 (26.7) | 10 (33.3) |
Lung | 426 (7.2) | 122 (28.6) | 227 (53.3) |
Lymphoma | 189 (3.2) | 46 (24.3) | NA |
Myeloma | 87 (1.5) | 38 (43.7) | NA |
Neuroendocrine tumours | 46 (0.8) | 19 (41.3) | NA |
Ovary | 143 (2.4) | 52 (36.4) | 87 (60.8) |
Pancreas | 41 (0.7) | 9 (22.0) | 20 (48.8) |
Prostate | 390 (6.5) | 63 (16.2) | 85 (21.8) |
Sarcomas | 268 (4.5) | 74 (27.6) | 62 (23.1) |
Melanoma | 585 (9.8) | 146 (25.0) | 102 (17.4) |
Thyroid | 376 (6.3) | 158 (42.0) | 77 (20.5) |
Endometrium | 237 (4.0) | 33 (13.9) | 45 (19.0) |
ALL | 5964 (100.0) | 1889 (31.7) | 1204 (20.2) |
2.3 Simulation scenarios
2.4 Statistical analysis
3. Results
3.1 Patient flows, treatment delays and treatment modifications
3.2 Hospital resources

3.3 Cancer outcomes
a) Early-return scenario | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cancer type | Patients during the simulation period | Metastatic patients (%) | Expected number of cancer-specific deaths at 5 years | Additional number of cancer-specific deaths at 5 years | Additional cancer mortality rate in year 2020 (%) | Additional cancer mortality rate in year 2021 (%) | Additional cancer mortality rate in year 2022 (%) |
Sarcomas | 536 | 138 | 235 | 19 | 20.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
Cervix | 584 | 50 | 177 | 11 | 15.5 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
Liver | 76 | 24 | 63 | 3 | 8.7 | 2.2 | 1.9 |
Endometrium | 558 | 107 | 135 | 4 | 8.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
Acute leukaemia | 355 | NA | 171 | 5 | 7.9 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
Head and neck | 960 | 98 | 371 | 12 | 7.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
Breast | 3922 | 401 | 728 | 21 | 6.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
Bladder | 140 | 71 | 80 | 1 | 3.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Colon | 476 | 245 | 249 | 7 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 |
Lung | 915 | 479 | 749 | 4 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Melanoma | 1188 | 195 | 643 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
Germinal seminoma | 147 | 79 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Lymphoma | 419 | NA | 127 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Myeloma | 207 | NA | 130 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Neuroendocrine tumours | 128 | NA | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Gastroesophageal | 168 | 80 | 126 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ovary | 342 | 214 | 176 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Pancreas | 96 | 60 | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prostate | 893 | 197 | 143 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Thyroid | 760 | 126 | 133 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Kidney | 95 | 95 | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
All | 13,015 | 2659 | 4639 | 88 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
b) Late-return scenario | |||||||
Cancer type | Patients during the simulation period | Metastatic patients (%) | Expected number of cancer-specific deaths at 5 years | Additional number of cancer-specific deaths at 5 years | Additional cancer mortality rate in year 2020 (%) | Additional cancer mortality rate in year 2021 (%) | Additional cancer mortality rate in year 2022 (%) |
Sarcomas | 609 | 152 | 248 | 30 | 29.1 | 4.7 | 1.5 |
Cervix | 620 | 62 | 194 | 15 | 20.7 | 2.0 | 1.3 |
Head and neck | 970 | 94 | 375 | 23 | 14.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
Acute leukaemia | 365 | NA | 176 | 9 | 13.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
Endometrium | 573 | 111 | 140 | 6 | 12.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
Breast | 4021 | 404 | 740 | 40 | 10.9 | 3.3 | 0.8 |
Liver | 81 | 26 | 67 | 4 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 2.2 |
Bladder | 150 | 79 | 87 | 2 | 5.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
Colon | 485 | 246 | 251 | 7 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.6 |
Lung | 931 | 503 | 766 | 7 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Melanoma | 1214 | 204 | 656 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0 |
Germinal seminoma | 141 | 80 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Lymphoma | 430 | 0 | 130 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Myeloma | 209 | 0 | 131 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Neuroendocrine tumours | 122 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Gastroesophageal | 176 | 81 | 132 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ovary | 342 | 219 | 179 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Pancreas | 108 | 64 | 98 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prostate | 901 | 199 | 144 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Thyroid | 780 | 130 | 138 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Kidney | 100 | 100 | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
All | 13,328 | 2754 | 4769 | 145 | 6.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
4. Discussion
Prise en charge des cancers digestifs en fonction de la situation épidémique COVID-19. https://www.snfge.org/content/21-prise-en-charge-des-cancers-digestifs-en-fonction-de-la-situation-epidemique-covid-19.
Funding
Role of the funding source
Conflict of interest statement
Acknowledgements
Appendix A. Supplementary data
- Multimedia component 1
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