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Worldwide trends in gastric cancer mortality (1980–2011), with predictions to 2015, and incidence by subtype

  • Ana Ferro
    Affiliations
    Institute of Public Health of the University of Porto (ISPUP), Rua das Taipas n° 135, 4050-600 Porto, Portugal
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  • Bárbara Peleteiro
    Affiliations
    Institute of Public Health of the University of Porto (ISPUP), Rua das Taipas n° 135, 4050-600 Porto, Portugal

    Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Predictive Medicine and Public Health, University of Porto Medical School, Al. Prof. Hernâni Monteiro, 4200-319 Porto, Portugal
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  • Matteo Malvezzi
    Affiliations
    Department of Epidemiology, IRCCS – Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche Mario Negri, Via La Masa 19, 20156 Milan, Italy
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  • Cristina Bosetti
    Affiliations
    Department of Epidemiology, IRCCS – Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche Mario Negri, Via La Masa 19, 20156 Milan, Italy
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  • Paola Bertuccio
    Affiliations
    Department of Epidemiology, IRCCS – Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche Mario Negri, Via La Masa 19, 20156 Milan, Italy
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  • Fabio Levi
    Affiliations
    Cancer Epidemiology Unit, Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (IUMSP), Lausanne University Hospital, Rte de la Corniche 10, CH-1010 Lausanne, Switzerland
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  • Eva Negri
    Affiliations
    Department of Epidemiology, IRCCS – Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche Mario Negri, Via La Masa 19, 20156 Milan, Italy
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  • Carlo La Vecchia
    Affiliations
    Department of Epidemiology, IRCCS – Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche Mario Negri, Via La Masa 19, 20156 Milan, Italy

    Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health, University of Milan, Via Festa del Perdono 7, 20122 Milan, Italy
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  • Nuno Lunet
    Correspondence
    Corresponding author at: Department of Clinic Epidemiology, Predictive Medicine and Public Health, University of Porto Medical School, Al. Prof. Hernâni Monteiro, 4200-319 Porto, Portugal. Tel.: +351 22 5513652.
    Affiliations
    Institute of Public Health of the University of Porto (ISPUP), Rua das Taipas n° 135, 4050-600 Porto, Portugal

    Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Predictive Medicine and Public Health, University of Porto Medical School, Al. Prof. Hernâni Monteiro, 4200-319 Porto, Portugal
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Published:March 19, 2014DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejca.2014.01.029

      Abstract

      Gastric cancer incidence and mortality decreased substantially over the last decades in most countries worldwide, with differences in the trends and distribution of the main topographies across regions. To monitor recent mortality trends (1980–2011) and to compute short-term predictions (2015) of gastric cancer mortality in selected countries worldwide, we analysed mortality data provided by the World Health Organization. We also analysed incidence of cardia and non-cardia cancers using data from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (2003–2007). The joinpoint regression over the most recent calendar periods gave estimated annual percent changes (EAPC) around −3% for the European Union (EU) and major European countries, as well as in Japan and Korea, and around −2% in North America and major Latin American countries. In the United States of America (USA), EU and other major countries worldwide, the EAPC, however, were lower than in previous years. The predictions for 2015 show that a levelling off of rates is expected in the USA and a few other countries. The relative contribution of cardia and non-cardia gastric cancers to the overall number of cases varies widely, with a generally higher proportion of cardia cancers in countries with lower gastric cancer incidence and mortality rates (e.g. the USA, Canada and Denmark). Despite the favourable mortality trends worldwide, in some countries the declines are becoming less marked. There still is the need to control Helicobacter pylori infection and other risk factors, as well as to improve diagnosis and management, to further reduce the burden of gastric cancer.

      Keywords

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